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This
year's Oscar darlings are proving unusually hard to predict. But
Christopher Pickard is determined to have a go anyway...
As 1998 dawned the Titanic had only just cruised into view, having
held the top spot at the American box office for two weeks. According
to the critics, however, Titanic was not the film to watch in the
annual Oscar sweepstakes. That honour was bestowed upon LA Confidential,
which had made a virtual clean sweep in the year-end polls. But
Titanic was going to keep on steaming along at the top of the box
office charts for the next 13 weeks, all the way through to Oscar
night where it would grab the lion's share of the awards - 11 from
14 nominations.
A year later the opinion of the Hollywood insiders and many of the
critics was that, even if it had opened in July, the Oscar race
was Saving Private Ryan's to lose. Shakespeare In Love had opened
mid-December on eight screens, and if at first it only simmered
opposite Ryan, the Miramax marketing machine made sure it came to
the boil at just the right moment; firstly in February for the nominations
and then again in March when it pipped Ryan for best film, with
John Madden's film taking seven awards to Steven Spielberg's five.
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With
no Titanic on the horizon as a new millennium dawns, it is easier
to spot this year's Shakespeare In Love than it is the Saving Private
Ryan, Miramax having passed Shakespeare's mantle to Anthony Minghella's
The Talented Mr Ripley (pictured).
Ripley joins the race with a strong Academy pedigree. Its director
was responsible last time out for The English Patient, a winner
of nine Academy Awards in the 1996 season, including Miramax's first
for best picture. The following year, Titanic's year, Ripley's leading
man, Matt Damon, first came to prominence with a nomination for
acting and a win for his Good Will Hunting screenplay. Last year,
Shakespeare's year, Ripley's two supporting actresses, Cate Blanchett
and Gwyneth Paltrow, were both nominated for best actress, with
Paltrow taking the prize.
If anything can be certain with the Oscars, it is that when the
nominations are read out on 15 February, The Talented Mr Ripley
is going to be a major contender, with every possibility of matching
Titanic and All About Eve's 14 nominations. Whether or not it will
win is altogether another story, but it is just possible - though
only just - that Ripley is this year's Shakespeare In Love and Saving
Private Ryan rolled into one. How Miramax will cope with being the
front runner will be interesting to see, especially since it shares
the marketing honours with Paramount. Yet it did Titanic no harm
to have a Fox-Paramount partnership, and last year Miramax was working
in tandem with Universal on Shakespeare.
Ripley's director, Minghella, may be excused for getting a feeling
of déjŕ-vu when the nominations for best director are announced
in February, as there is an extremely good chance he will be running
alongside two of the four directors who were nominated with him
for the 69th awards. That year Minghella was up against Milos Forman
for The People Vs Larry Flynt, Mike Leigh for Secrets & Lies, Joel
Coen for Fargo, and Scott Hicks for Shine.
Coen won't be in the picture and Hicks is a long shot for Snow Falling
On Cedars, but Forman looks to be a very real contender with Man
On The Moon, while Leigh has been building a nice head of steam
with Topsy-Turvy. Both films could also pop up in the best picture
category.
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The
directors category is the strongest of the year. If you place Minghella,
Forman and Leigh in three of the five slots, who gets the other
two? Try selecting two or even three from Paul Thomas Anderson (Magnolia),
Woody Allen (Sweet And Lowdown), Frank Darabont (The Green Mile),
Lasse Hallström (The Cider House Rules), Norman Jewison (The Hurricane),
Neil Jordan (The End Of The Affair), Michael Mann (The Insider),
Sam Mendes (American Beauty) and Alan Parker (Angela's Ashes). And
they are just the front runners. Also in with an outside chance
could be Tim Burton (Sleepy Hollow, pictured), David Lynch (The
Straight Story), Kimberly Pierce (Boys Don't Cry) and M Night Shyamalan
(The Sixth Sense). And although his death was covered at the last
award ceremony, sentiment could bring Stanley Kubrick into the nomination
frame. Or would anyone begrudge a nomination for John Lasseter,
whose Toy Story 2 has had the best of the year's reviews?
Then, of course, there's the Benigni factor, which proved life can
be beautiful in Hollywood even if you don't speak English. The Benigni
factor makes Spain's Pedro Almodóvar a very real contender in the
director category, and it would be no surprise if All About My Mother
got a best film nomination. It is already the very strong favourite
for best foreign language honours and Cecilia Roth, European actress
of the year, and Penélope Cruz may have an outside chance for acting
nominations.
While the 350 members of the directors' branch of the Academy have
the unenviable task of coming up with the five most worthy directing
nominations, the full Academy voting membership of around 5,500
will probably have an easier time selecting the best film nominations,
as the choice for the best five seems a lot slimmer. Ripley, Man
On The Moon and Topsy-Turvy will all be in contention. American
Beauty looks very strong, too, as do The End Of The Affair, The
Green Mile, The Insider and Magnolia. But don't rule out The Hurricane
or Sweet And Lowdown or, from the indie camp, Boys Don't Cry and
Being John Malkovich. Blair Witch and The Sixth Sense look unlikely
to scare up enough votes among the Academy membership, though, and
don't hold your breath to see South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut
among the best picture nominees - although a nomination for best
song would add a certain spice to the award show...
With the kids from South Park also unlikely to drum up enough support
for an acting nomination, members of the Academy could still reward
a couple of young actors, with Haley Joel Osment looking likely
to receive a supporting actor nomination for his performance in
The Sixth Sense while Kimberly J Brown has an outside shot for her
supporting performance in Tumbleweeds.
In the supporting actress category Kimberly will find herself up
against Blanchett and Paltrow from Ripley and possibly the duo of
Cameron Diaz and Catherine Keener from Being John Malkovich. Newcomer
Samantha Morton looks certain for a slot for Woody Allen's Sweet
And Lowdown, as does Chloe Sevigny for Boys Don't Cry. Julianne
Moore has the intriguing possibility of being nominated for supporting
actress for Magnolia and best actress for The End Of The Affair.
Hilary Swank appears to have a lock on one of the five best actress
nominations and quite possibly the Oscar for her performance in
Boys Don't Cry. Academy favourite Meryl Streep should also be in
the frame for Music Of The Heart and if she is, she will tie Katharine
Hepburn's all-time-high tally of 12 Oscar nominations. Other front
runners among the leading ladies include Annette Bening (American
Beauty), Jodie Foster (Anna And The King), Janet McTeer (Tumbleweeds),
Emily Watson (Angela's Ashes), Kate Winslet (Holy Smoke) and possibly
Reese Witherspoon (Election).
After being overlooked last year for The Truman Show, Jim Carrey's
apology from the Academy should come in the form of an acting nomination
for Man On The Moon. Other strong contenders for best actor include
the aforementioned Damon alongside Kevin Spacey for American Beauty
and Russell Crowe for The Insider. Nobody would bet against Tom
Hanks picking up another nomination for The Green Mile and Denzel
Washington should be a contender for The Hurricane. Emotionally,
however, the men to beat will be Kirk Douglas for his comeback role
after illness in Diamonds and Richard Farnsworth for his performance
in The Straight Story.
A year ago it would have seemed reasonable to expect Tom Cruise
to get a nomination for his performance in Kubrick's Eyes Wide Shut.
Instead - at the start of 2000 - it seems far more likely that he
will get a nomination and possibly an Academy Award for his supporting
role in Magnolia. Always an interesting category, Cruise is likely
to be joined by a cross section of acting talent that could include
Sixth Sense's Osment, The Cider House Rules' Michael Caine, and
veterans Christopher Plummer (The Insider) and Jason Robards (Magnolia).
Jude Law may be fancied for Ripley, too, as could Philip Seymour
Hoffman, who may also be in the frame for Magnolia. And would it
not be churlish of the Academy if John Malkovich does not get a
nomination for Being John Malkovich?
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Finally,
in the documentary category can Buena Vista Social Club (pictured)
break the circle of Holocaust-focused documentaries, or will it
be Mr Death: The Rise And Fall Of Fred A Leuchter, Jr, the story
of a leader of the Holocaust-denial movement? Stay tuned - by 15
February we will at least know all the runners and riders for the
office Oscar sweepstakes.
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